Electrification of the automobile

Obviously, I'm late to this story, but I wanted to catalog it here anyways. When General Motors and Chrysler basically failed in 2009 and were bailed out, I thought to myself that this was the opening that electric cars needed to get a foothold in the market. A couple of electric car companies had been operating prior to the auto company decline, but now there was a large enough void to make a big difference. GM and Chrysler have since bounced back to some extent, but they both have learned from the crisis about the electrification of the automobile. I think the next decade will see lots of electric car companies contending for market share along with GM, Chrysler, Ford and foreign veterans as well. But after a decade or so, that number will come way down until we see a just few big contenders in the US. I wanted to list the electric car companies operating as of now and try to assess which ones have the most promise.

Venturebeat.com has a great list of 30 electric car companies around the world which have some chance of maybe becoming Blue Chip some day, who knows. Of course, GM is releasing its hybrid Volt next year. Ford is already into the hybrid business and talking about an electric Focus by 2012 or so. Chrysler actually has a subsidiary, Global Electric Motors, which has the e2, an electric cart really. It's not exactly highway material. Nissan is going to raise GM's Volt with the fully electric Leaf next year. Mitsubishi's fully electric MiEV should begin sales in the US in 2011. Volkswagen and Infiniti both have plans for a full electric car by 2013. And we all know that Toyota and Honda have had great hybrid electric vehicles for years. So the major auto manufacturers are heading towards electrification, but what of the new guys?

Well, the brashest one has to be Tesla Motors, which has been selling its luxury electric Tesla Roadster for years, and plans to start selling a more reasonably priced Model-S full electric sedan by 2012.

Zenn Motors and Smart USA both have full electric cars out now but they are very small and have limited speed capabilities. They're great for getting around town, though. I see quite a few around Rochester, and am a little jealous when I'm driving my clunky SUV. These two companies seem to be betting that Americans will compromise on size, which is a prediction that might be on shaky ground.

Think is a promising looking company with full electric car models offered now that can reach highway speeds. This is one to watch.

Phoenix Motorcars was a company I hadn't heard of before, but has surprisingly competitive full electric SUV sized models. It may be the cost of $45,000 or the range of 250 miles (not bad, actually) that is keeping consumers from buying them. This is another one to watch.

Fisker Automotive is a competitive company with hybrid electric model called the Karma. And it's available now. I'm not quite sure of the prospects of this company, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pull ahead.

I've omitted companies profiled in Venturebeat's article if they are not offering vehicles in the US anytime soon. I've also omitted some companies offering only three wheeled electric car options, because I don't see those appealing to the average American consumer.

I think that Tesla Motors, Phoenix Motorcars and Think will have the best chances of supplanting the dominance of GM, Chrysler and Ford. I wish all of them luck. It's likely too, though, that some foreign auto companies could capitalize on this market void and be the first ones to jump in with viable electric cars. Toyota and Honda have a head start with that, but don't seem to be cinching it.


The good news here is that there are already plenty of contenders to fill the electric car void. And the winners could easily be brand new automotive companies. It would be something if they end up usurping the Big Three and upsetting the automotive market. Perhaps the electrification of the car is a bit of a silver lining to the whole automotive financial meltdown. But it's more likely that the financial meltdown of the automotive sector was the first signal of an approaching systemic shift in automotive drive train conventions.

How can technology make the trade-offs we face less severe?

The title of this article is a question which I pose because of its importance. I also have it in my profile description at the top. It is an important driving question for engineers or technologists to ask. What is more fundamentally important is that everyone thinking about the problems we face should realize that none of the solutions come Scott-free or unattached to other consequences... there are always trade-offs.

I find that this concept that trade-offs are inescapable is missed by many. I've argued with others over the benefits of wind turbines even if they are nearby to the person's property. Sometimes the individual finds them an unpleasant sight (an opinion I am baffled by), so they reject the idea. However, they fail to realize that by choosing to reject a few wind turbines on the horizon they have inadvertently chosen a coal plant down the road instead... Because I am certain they will not choose to live without their electronics.

As is said in economics: there is no such thing as a free lunch (TINSTAFL). We must begin every design problem with the notion of trade-offs in the back of our minds. When we think we have a probable solution, one must ask: what are the opportunity costs? ... that is: how would this solution constrain our options if we implement it? Of course this question of trade-offs is useful as an idea filter of sorts. A quick mental check to make sure ideas you have pass muster.

Let me explain how I use this concept in decision making by recounting an interesting lecture. There is a TED lecture video where Barry Schwartz talks about the paradox of choice. His thesis is basically that choice is a good thing that people want and benefit from, but too much choice hinders decision making and is ultimately a bad thing by leading to poor or irrational decisions or paralyzing your ability to decide. Schwartz mentions that there is some optimal number of options to have, the question is: how many is that? Although Schwartz offers an answer, it is somewhat of an open question in no small part because it varies case by case. But the lesson is for every decision we face, we should approach it first by asking what are the extraneous choices. Extraneous choices generally are the options that, upon quantitative scrutiny, are not competitive on any direct metrics, not competitive on the majority of direct metrics or have an unacceptable opportunity cost. Then we are left with only the choices that are true trade offs. Here we are faced with options which have rival benefits and comparable opportunity costs.

From here it takes some cost-benefit analysis. One must also begin to look at indirect consequences of the decision or "cascading effects," so to speak,  to being to differentiate the choices. At this point, rather than committing to one choice or the other as is, one might ask is there an extant technological option that, if implemented somehow in the decision, can sway the choice/cost/benefits/trade-off in one direction to make the decision an easier calculation? If there isn't an extant technology for this, is there feasible or conceivable technology to do so?... Then the question is what will it take to mobilize that technological option?

Incidentally, I find that some of the RPG (role playing game) style games I enjoyed playing as a child uniquely prepared my mind for handling these kind of mental checks and trade-off comparisons. RPG's are all about constructing a character with favorable traits and equipment. So these games constantly presented me with choices to calculate: "Should I choose a long range archer or a durable warrior? Should I use the sword with +10 to all attributes or the spear with +40 strength and decent reach?" Hmmmm.... aren't these just mini cost-benefit analysis problems?

I believe so, and they make for good practice. Eventually we will have to bring this mental process to bear on trade-offs with much more at stake. It helps to have a general process to guide one through the decision making steps... and it helps to have some practice, too.

What a week to begin

I would hope that I will update this blog at least every other day, if not every day... but I've already been humbled. It seems this week was not a good week to start my blog because free time has been few and far between. My graduate classes in this sustainability program have reached their 7th week and the assignments are piling up. I've had one major assignment due every day this week so far and it will continue that way through Friday.

First, I finalized my Plan of Study and had it approved by my degree adviser. It took some time to figure out every class I want to take during my two year program, but I've done it. It's not completely written in stone, so I may change a course in the spring quarter, we will see. The potential hiccup in my plans was having to get one of my chosen courses approved. But this turned out to be successful. This was a natural resources economics course for this winter quarter. I'll also be taking a course on life cycle assessment of products and processes and a lab course about rapid prototyping, also known as 3-D printing to some. My spring quarter will have a design for the environment course, a design for manufacture course, and solid & hazardous waste management course. I'm pretty excited about the prospects.

This quarter I'm taking a product design course, a fundamentals of sustainability course, and a renewable energy systems course. Tuesday was the deadline for a costing & assembly time analysis for a window fan product. Today, a short report and presentation on aluminum production and recycling processes is due. Still have a little bit of rehearsal to do for the presentation. Thursday, a homework on solar photovoltaic systems is due. And Friday, a proposal paper for numerically modeling a seasonal solar thermal collector system is due. So a busy week to begin this blogging project, but it's already proving to be quite enjoyable so I will keep it up.

Where the energy journey started for me

As an undergraduate engineering student at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland, Ohio, I took a course called Fuel Cells: Reality, Prospects, Myths during the spring semester of 2006. My interests in energy were stirring by this time, but this class really took me deeper into that rabbit hole. I was sold on the panacea of a hydrogen economy going into it, but, by the end of it... I realized it wasn't that easy. After reading the literature for that class, a hydrogen economy actually looked more like fools' gold than any kind of cure. The class read Jeremy Rifkin's Hydrogen Economy first, which hyped up hydrogen fuel as the miracle I thought it was at the time. To it's credit, the book gave a very interesting historical recounting from an energy resource perspective. It shed some light on the role that energy and resources played in the collapse of various civilizations and empires (I later read Jared Diamond's Collapse which covers a similar theme). This historical retelling added to my understanding of the intersection of science and society.

The class shifted gears and spent a majority of time on a book by Joseph J. Romm, who worked at the US Department of Energy, called The Hype About Hydrogen. This book explained the devilish details of various energy conversion processes, especially the advantages and disadvantages of fuel cell technologies. The book argued convincingly that hydrogen fuel cells (i.e. polymer exchange membrane or PEM fuel cells) are a bit of a boondoggle due to poor conversion efficiency going from electricity to hydrogen and back to electricity. Physorg.com has a good article that expounds on this problem. Here is a nice flowchart from that article that compares using hydrogen fuel to using batteries:

This chart compares the useful transport energy requirements for a vehicle powered from a hydrogen process (left) vs. electricity (right). Image Credit: Ulf Bossel. (Borrowed from Physorg.com)

  Joseph J. Romm also points out that hydrogen fuel cells are not the only type of fuel cell. It seems other fuel cells, which use other fuels, do have a role to play in our energy future. Some are even deployed today and are powering various businesses and institutions. There will be opportunities to explore these in more detail later.

I was, of course, taking all the typical engineering courses while I took this fuel cell class. And, to speak to my science/society interest: the semester before I had taken a course called Science and Society in Literature. But this fuel cell class is where the interest in energy issues really crystallized for me. I continued taking my engineering courses and especially enjoyed the three thermodynamics courses I took. I worked on chemical solution deposition of thin film solar cells for my senior thesis. And I now find myself pursuing a Sustainable Engineering masters degree at the Rochester Institute of Technology. And still, at every turn, this rabbit hole leads to new halls to wander in.

Wandering in

I've been meaning to begin a catalog of what I'm thinking about for a while now and practice my writing while doing it. This will be the place I put my more polished thoughts and ideas that I find myself writing down in my offline notebook. I hope by putting these online it will create a conversation and provide a means of improvement by taking advantage of people's comments and questions.

As for me, I am an engineering graduate student in Rochester, NY. I find myself thinking a lot about energy technology and waste issues. But I also think about their intersection with society and governance. So this blog will be tend to be a science and society type blog. Of course, I may wander in that mission.

After all, "The Ambulatory" is named after the aisle within cathedrals for patrons to think and observe while walking... incidentally in circles; wandering, more or less. This blog will be that hall for wandering and thinking for me. Friedrich Nietzsche said, "all truly great thoughts are conceived by walking." Here's to hoping that I'll have one or two.